Aussies back Disney over Netflix
ELON Musk will prevail over the Tesla naysayers, Donald Trump will lose the election, and Baby Yoda will help Disney dominate Netflix.
Those are some of the predictions for 2020 from users of investment app Stake, an online broker that allows Australians to invest in the US stock market, as part of its end-of-year review.
Nearly 800 investors - the majority of whom are under 34 and live in Sydney or Melbourne - were asked their opinion on a range of questions about 2019 and looking forward to next year.
On the streaming wars, 56 per cent of Stake's users said Disney shareholders would win versus 43 per cent who backed Netflix shareholders.
"Disney has had a phenomenal run in the markets this year - up 35 per cent - and since the launch of Disney+ we've seen it jump to the second most traded stock on Stake," said Stake global head of marketing Bryan Wilmot.
"Netflix on the other hand has slowly been dropping in popularity, now sitting at about 40th most traded. With a big announcement like Plus and strong performance in the market, it's not a surprise to see people getting onto it (Disney)."
He added, "Outside of market performance specifically though, I think Disney holds a huge amount of nostalgia for people, especially those who grew up in the '90s. It's a legacy business in the content world, and people probably emotionally back it and also back its ability to execute in the streaming wars."
In the Tesla battle, 77 per cent predicted Mr Musk would be vindicated, while 22 per cent backed Tesla short sellers - investors who bet that its stock will fall.
In the race to the Oval Office, 52 per cent backed Michael Bloomberg - or any other Democratic candidate - versus 47 per cent who tipped Mr Trump to win.
And in basketball's "Battle of LA", 74 per cent were tipping a good year for Lakers fans versus just 25 per cent who backed the Clippers.
Then there's the supposed "ETF bubble" warning from hedge fund manager Michael Burry - played by Christian Bale in The Big Short - who believes the tsunami of money flowing into low-fee index funds, championed by legendary investor Warren Buffett, is distorting stock and bond markets.
But just 31 per cent of Stake users agreed with Mr Burry, while 68 per cent remained "ETF diehards".
Asked what they thought was the most interesting event of 2019, 35 per cent picked "Trump, Twitter and Tariffs", 22 per cent chose the "IPO meltdown" of Uber, Lyft, Peleton and others, and 13 per cent selected the rise and fall of Beyond Meat.
Respondents overwhelmingly predicted the US market would outperform the ASX next year, with 69 per cent agreeing compared with just 14 per cent who had confidence in local stocks.
Interestingly, that's despite the two thirds of users who invest in both markets being evenly split on their results in 2019 - 50 per cent said they performed better in the US, while 49 per cent did better on the ASX.
On their US portfolio returns, 28 per cent saw gains of 1-5 per cent, 21 per cent saw gains of 6-10 per cent, and 18 per cent saw no gains or lost money.
Amazon, Disney and Intel were named among the top-performing investments, while the most commonly used word to describe the past year was "volatile".
Asked for their key investing lesson learnt in 2019, one respondent wrote, "Inverse everything on the r/wallstreetbets subreddit."