The nation decides: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The nation decides: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Morrison favoured in key Queensland seats

SCOTT Morrison is the overwhelming preferred prime minister in four critical Queensland seats that also back the Coalition on jobs, traffic congestion and border security, an exclusive poll for The Courier-Mail reveals.

However, Bill Shorten is on track to become prime minister with southern states swinging to Labor although this may not deliver him enough seats to avoid a hung parliament.

According to the national Newspoll, published in The Weekend Australian today, the Coalition heads into today's election with a dip in its primary vote, falling one point to 38 per cent, and behind Labor 48.5-51.5 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

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Two-thirds of the Newspoll respondents were polled after the death of former prime minister Bob Hawke, however, Labor's vote has not shifted from last week and remains at 37 per cent.

The Coalition appears to have lost ground to independents.

In a shot in the arm for the Coalition, an exclusive The Courier-Mail/YouGov Galaxy poll reveals that battleground Queensland has given its greatest signal that it will largely remain a blue-ribbon state at the federal level.

The poll also shows that in the marginal seat of Flynn, 55 per cent of voters, including one-third of Labor supporters, believe Adani is vital to the future of central Queensland.

Mr Morrison made a final pitch to Queenslanders yesterday, blitzing Herbert, Leichhardt and Flynn after hitting the hustings in Longman on Thursday night.

Mr Shorten stayed in Sydney yesterday to pay his respects to Bob Hawke's widow Blanche d'Alpuget and last night flew to Victoria, which is the Coalition's greatest weakness and likely to secure Labor's victory.

Labor made a play for Leichhardt this campaign, spruiking its climate change policies, but the LNP was last night confident it would keep the seat, which is held by Warren Entsch by 4.1 per cent.

It is understood Mr Morrison hit the tropics after Mr Entsch was bombarded with questions over the Prime Minister's failure to visit Leichhardt during the campaign.

Asked why he was in Cairns, Mr Morrison said: "It says that I take nothing for granted anywhere in the country and it says that I love Entschy."

However, the Coalition is worried about holding the marginal seat Flynn, held by Ken O'Dowd by just 1.1 per cent.

The YouGov Galaxy poll of 508 voters on Monday and Tuesday reveals Mr O'Dowd has kept the 37 per cent primary vote he won in 2016 and is ahead of Labor's Zac Beers 53-47 on two-party-preferred.

Also, 53 per cent of voters polled in Flynn believe Mr Morrison makes the better prime minster compared to Mr Shorten, who secured 33 per cent support.

In relation to the Adani coal mine, repeatedly stalled by the State Government and dividing Mr Shorten's team, 27 per cent do not believe it is vital to Central Queensland's prosperity, well below the 55 per cent who do believe it is necessary.

 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison campaigns during a visit at a retiree forum in the seat of Flynn, held by Ken O'Dowd, earlier this month. Picture: Gary Ramage/Getty Images)
Prime Minister Scott Morrison campaigns during a visit at a retiree forum in the seat of Flynn, held by Ken O'Dowd, earlier this month. Picture: Gary Ramage/Getty Images)

In Herbert, the Coalition was becoming more confident that it would win back the seat it lost to Labor in 2016.

Of the four seats polled, Herbert had the highest percentage of voters, 56 per cent, who supported Mr Morrison as prime minister, over Mr Shorten at 26 per cent.

When asked which party had the better plan to deliver jobs in the high-unemployment seat, 44 per cent of voters put their faith in the LNP.

Dickson is not only a marginal seat, it is held by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton by just 1.8 per cent. Knocking off Mr Dutton would be considered one of Labor's greatest campaign achievements, however, the poll found the former detective is ahead on a two-party-preferred basis 51-49.

Asked if asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru should be resettled in Australia, 60 per cent of respondents in the seat said no. Of those, one-third were Labor voters. It is a good sign for Mr Dutton and the Coalition, which is traditionally viewed as being stronger on border security than Labor.

And, Coalition insiders have been worried about losing Forde this campaign but believe they may scrape over the line tonight. The YouGov Galaxy poll revealed 50 per cent of respondents preferred Mr Morrison as prime minister ahead of Mr Shorten on 30 per cent.

Thirty-seven per cent also said they believed the LNP had the better plan to fix congestion on the M1.