The BOM’s long-term climate forecast does not have heavy rain on the region’s radar for until at least April.
The BOM’s long-term climate forecast does not have heavy rain on the region’s radar for until at least April.

Gympie forecast is more of the same – but not all bad

A BREAK in Gympie’s dry spell is likely still months away, barring a potential disaster like a tropical cyclone.

Bureau of Meteorology climate maps reveal there is less than a 50 per chance of rainfall exceeding the region’s median average over the next three months.

This includes only a 35 per cent chance of higher rainfall through to March.

There is less than a 50 per cent chance of higher than average rain falling over the next four months in Gympie.
There is less than a 50 per cent chance of higher than average rain falling over the next four months in Gympie.

But BOM forecaster Harry Clark said there was still a silver lining to those rainless clouds.

“It’ll be nowhere near as dry as it was,” Mr Clark said.

“We are slowly improving our chance of getting rainfall.

“All it takes is one really good system.”

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Unfortunately, there is still “nothing at this stage that indicates (heavy rainfall) is going to happen”.

There is no rain forecast for the next few days, with maximum temperatures of 34C today and tomorrow, and 32C on Monday.

The chance of a t
The chance of a t

The other prospect of decent rain – a tropical cyclone crossing the coast – was possible, but the BOM’s seasonal outlook reports a 60 per cent chance of fewer than average cyclones forming over the Coral Sea.

However, a below-average season does not guarantee minimal (and potentially destructive) rainfall – TC Debbie developed in a slow season.

The main drivers of the continued warm, dry weather are a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, and a negative Southern Annular Mode. The climate patterns both moved towards neutral this week but their effects – the warm, dry conditions – will continue.