Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.  Picture:  Kym Smith
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Picture: Kym Smith

Final poll predicts Labor victory

LABOR looks set to take government with little more than a third of the popular vote after a slight improvement in its standing in the final week of the election campaign.

According to the last Newspoll of the campaign, published in The Weekend Australian, Labor is likely to win with just 37 per cent of the primary vote. The Coalition sits at 38 per cent, down more than 4 per cent since the last election.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten making chive and pork dumplings on the campaign trail. He expects to be dining in The Lodge after the election. Picture: Kym Smith
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten making chive and pork dumplings on the campaign trail. He expects to be dining in The Lodge after the election. Picture: Kym Smith

Labor's primary vote is even lower than that achieved by former Prime Minister Julia Gillard in 2010 when she ended up in charge of a minority government.

The Weekend Australian says the Coalition would have to win 10 marginal seats across the country thought to be 50-50 to even have a chance at forming a minority government.

 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. According to Newspoll, he needs every piece of luck to go his way to have any chance of winning the election. Picture: Getty
Prime Minister Scott Morrison. According to Newspoll, he needs every piece of luck to go his way to have any chance of winning the election. Picture: Getty

But the distribution of preferences is set to see Labor leader Bill Shorten become the 31st Prime Minister of Australia, giving Labor a 51.5-48.5 two-party preferred edge over the Coalition. This is a 0.5 per cent shift in Labor's favour in the past week.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and wife Chloe will be calling Canberra home after the election, according to the final Newspoll of the campaign. Picture: Kym Smith
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and wife Chloe will be calling Canberra home after the election, according to the final Newspoll of the campaign. Picture: Kym Smith

If the overall swing to Labor occurs evenly across the nation, Labor will end up with 81 seats in the 151-seat parliament - a clear majority. Currently, the Coalition has 73 seats and Labor has 69, with 76 being the magic number of seats required to form government.

While the major parties have struggled to win over the voting public, the minor parties will now claim a whopping 25 per cent of the popular vote (up from 23.2 per cent in 2016), Newspoll shows.

Greens leader Richard Di Natale. His party and the other minor parties now hold a 25 per cent slice of the popular vote. Picture: AAP
Greens leader Richard Di Natale. His party and the other minor parties now hold a 25 per cent slice of the popular vote. Picture: AAP

This is split between The Greens (9 per cent), United Australia Party (5 per cent), One Nation (3 per cent) and Other Parties (8 per cent).

 

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten may have to show Greens leader Richard Di Natale a little more love if the election ends in a hung parliament. Picture: AAP
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten may have to show Greens leader Richard Di Natale a little more love if the election ends in a hung parliament. Picture: AAP

 

Mr Shorten's apparent ascent to the nation's top job comes despite voters' ongoing preference for Mr Morrison as Prime Minister (47-38). Mr Morrison also has a superior net approval rating (+1) compared to Mr Shorten (-8).

More than 4.5 million Australians cast their votes early in this election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He’s the preferred Prime Minister, but he will soon be out of the top job, according to Newspoll. Picture: Getty
Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He’s the preferred Prime Minister, but he will soon be out of the top job, according to Newspoll. Picture: Getty

The campaign came to an emotional close with the passing for former Prime Minister Bob Hawke just two days before the election.

Mr Hawke was Prime Minister from 1983 to 1991, making him Labor's longest-serving Prime Minister.

 

 

To read more visit The Weekend Australian