Labor's candidate for Longman Susan Lamb has a fight on her hands to retain the seat. Picture: AAP/Glenn Hunt
Labor's candidate for Longman Susan Lamb has a fight on her hands to retain the seat. Picture: AAP/Glenn Hunt

The crucial seat slipping away from Labor

THE seat of Longman is slipping away from Labor's Susan Lamb with the ALP's vote falling and Malcolm Turnbull holding a commanding lead on a range of policies including the critical issue of health.

An exclusive The Courier-Mail/ReachTEL poll shows Labor slipping below 50 per cent of the preferred vote after enjoying a 50/50 split just a week ago.

More worrying for Labor is a split of preferences from the 21.3 per cent of minor party and independent voters who are breaking 70 per cent to the LNP.

In that small party mix, One Nation is defying the pundits and other polls by not just holding its 2016 election vote share but increasing it by half as much again.

Also, Mr Turnbull is winning on the questions of who has the best plan for Queensland, who can best deliver on health, manage the economy and control the borders.

There is also strong support for Mr Turnbull's tax plan - 48 per cent to 33 per cent - and a slight in the government's favour for cutting the corporate tax rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent.

The latest poll has Labor's Susan Lamb - excluded from Parliament because of her failure to renounce British citizenship - on 39 per cent, followed by 35.5 per cent for the LNP's Trevor Ruthenberg.

Matthew Stephen from One Nation is rated with 14.7 per cent - more than 50 per cent above the 9.4 per cent Pauline Hanson's party scored in 2016.

The other small party vote is 6.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent are undecided. Asked about preferences, respondents who hadn't opted for the major parties 71 per cent said they would give the LNP a second choice and just 29 per cent opted for Labor.

The allocation of preferences and dividing up the undecided votes gave the LNP 51 per cent and Labor 49, indicating Bill Shorten's team will need every vote it can scrape together to win.

This is going to be easier said than done with Labor and Mr Shorten trailing on the key issues that might sway voters - especially health which is linked to funding for the Caboolture Hospital, itself playing out as vital in the minds of Longman electors.